Gene Munster of Loup Ventures said Wednesday that plans to launch Apple’s iPhone 2020 are at risk from the COVID-19 pandemic, pointing out that investors are building an iPhone over a period of three or four years, not one .
Munster said in a blog that it is a “misunderstanding” that it only takes Apple one year to get from concept to iPhone.
The analyst referred to a Nikkei Asian Review report that said Wednesday that Apple was thinking about the typical iPhone startup cycle in the fall because of fear of COVID-19. This year’s iPhone, provisionally referred to as “iPhone 12”, is expected to be the first to support 5G connectivity. As such, the handset should be a hit with consumers.
“Aside from supply chain constraints, Apple is concerned that the current situation will significantly reduce the appetite of consumers to upgrade their phones, which could result in tame reception of the first iPhone 5G,” a source said. knew at the Nikkei Asian Review. “You need the first iPhone 5G to be successful.”
In addition to the potentially poor reception from declining consumer demand, the technology giant faces development barriers due to travel restrictions that have been introduced to slow the spread of the virus. According to the report, Apple is scheduled to work with suppliers on a “more concrete prototype” of the phone in early March, but these plans have been delayed.
In response to the report, Munster estimates that it will take Apple three to four years to launch a new iPhone. In previous interviews, Johny Srouji, executive vice president of hardware technology, said engineers and designers were working on aspects of a new iPhone years before launch.
“This means that the majority of the work on developing and planning an iPhone with the supply chain is completed by the end of March each year,” Munster writes.
In addition, the analyst notes that large suppliers, including chipmaker TSMC of the A series, are ramping up production for the expected autumn start. Munster estimates that the supply chain is ready to deliver “several million” iPhones by the end of September. This corresponds to the starting cycles last autumn.
Nevertheless, Münster expects an initial “subdued” demand for the new handset. Apparently, the analyst does not believe that a weak question will encourage Apple to delay launch.
“Given the rumors of a slowdown in the iPhone 5G, it’s important to remember that Apple plans to operate in decades rather than years – an underestimated long-term competitive advantage,” Munster writes. “At the heart of this benefit is the company’s profits that let the unexpected survive, from COVID-19 to a financial crisis or little initial demand for a new iPhone.”